Sports Betting

College Football Week 4 Picks

We’re getting to the thick of it. College football is REALLY here. Last week sucked, I tweeted my picks. Here is the tweet. It should be noted that one of my wins last week was a formula pick, auto bet the unranked teams favored over ranked teams! Before last week I was 7-5-1 on the season.

After going 2-3 last week ^^, I am now 9-8-1 on the season. Let’s get back to a big money week! And I love these picks. Some more disgusting numbers, my favorite. I’m typing this on a plane to Vegas so the vibes are high.

Iowa State -2.5 (vs Baylor)

You guys know this, an unranked team favored against a ranked team. INSTANT BET. Blindly, doesn’t even matter.

New Mexico State -4.5 (vs Hawaii)

I hate to do this, the Rainbow Warriors are always one of my favorite teams to root for and bet on, but this ain’t it. Hawaii is throwing out a high school team this season. Take the small home fave to get a win that they’ll be proud of.

Michigan State +3 (vs Minnesota)

This is purely an overreaction from Vegas, or them assuming the public will overreact to the Spartans loss to Washington. Michigan State would not have been a home dog vs Minnesota this year without last week, and we can’t blame Michigan State for losing a night game in Seattle. Time zone, rowdy crowd, frisky team, blah blah. Michigan State is still solid enough, and ESPN FPI still gives them over a 60% chance of winning and they are an underdog. Take the points.

James Madison +7 (@ App State)

This one is scary. This is purely fading the public’s obsession with App State, and gambling that JMU can keep up and prove they are an FBS team. JMU has crushed lesser opponents this year, and this is a HUGE test. Don’t look at power ratings or ESPN FPI, that’s all over App State. This is a vibes pick.

Notre Dame +2.5 (@ North Carolina)

Like my Michigan State pick, this is grabbing the other side of an overreaction line. Although, this one may be more warranted. Notre Dame has not been good. However, this line is GROSS. UNC at home with such a small number vs a “bad” team? Why isn’t this -6? Well, referencing ESPN FPI again, Notre Dame has a 55% chance of winning and you’re getting points. So this is an easy pick for me, but the stats are all over the place on this one and UNC’s defense and Notre Dame’s lack of offense make this all up in the air.

Florida +10.5 (@ Tennessee)

Florida has not looked great after week one, where they were just alright in a fun win over Utah. But 10.5 seems like way too many points for a rivalry game. Everyone is on Tennessee, I have no data behind this, it just feels like Tennessee fans arent allowed to be happy. As an Oregon State fan, I understand. Don’t be shocked if Florida pulls off the upset win, let alone covering 10.5.

0 comments on “College Football Week 4 Picks

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: