My fingers work again, the blog is back! It has been an insane fall for me personally, so I am glad to be back on the college football grind. I did tweet my picks every week still, and you can see them all here with time stamps:
I boasted pre-season about how I have been 60% or above against the spread three straight non-covid seasons, and I can still do it with a good week and a good bowl season. If you scroll through twitter you’ll see I am 32-28-2 on the season, good for 53% ATS.
I’m going to give a pick for all five power five championship games, and maybe some more. Here we go!
FRIDAY: USC -2.5 (vs Utah)
Everyone, sharps included, seem to be on Utah, but I think there is a DIFFERENT kind of motivation when talking about going to the college football playoff for USC. They aren’t fighting for a spot in the conference title game or the Rose Bowl, we’re talking the big show here. Caleb Williams could also win himself the Heisman in this game.
I think the superior talent on USC with the added desperation/motivation gets it done, on top of the fact that Cam Rising and the Utah offense has not looked great in the second half of the season.
TCU -2 (vs Kansas State)
I know picking two short faves this specific weekend is such a square thing to do, but TCU has the exact same reasoning in my mind as USC does. See above.
The CFP desperation is real, and TCU has to avoid barely missing the top 4 like they have done twice before this.
UCF +4 (vs Tulane)
Everyone’s on Tulane, and I sort of think UCF could be favored in this game. This would just be chaos result, as people have just slotted Tulane into a new years six bowl, why can’t UCF win it and go? And on top of that, 4 points? That’s a lot for these high stress close games, give me the points.
Georgia -17.5 (vs LSU)
LSU has already finished their season. It was a success just getting to this game vs Georgia. Georgia doesn’t look like it every week and play down to their opponent sometimes, but don’t forget that they are a machine and have been covering these types of games vs good teams for a few years now. I think they win like 31-6 and the second half is a snoozer.
North Carolina +7.5 (vs Clemson)
I don’t trust either of these teams, and I especially don’t trust Clemson to beat a good team by more than a TD. No analysis needed here, just too many points. This game should be Clemson -3, not -7.5.
Purdue +17 (vs Michigan)
Even with a conference championship on the line, this feels like a let down spot for Michigan, right? They have been celebrating all week, I know it. Maybe they start slow and still win by 10+, but I don’t know about 17 especially without their star running back and possibly without a crucial member of their defensive line.
Purdue is also a classic WTF cover team, I love them. Give me all the points late Saturday night in Indy.