Well well well, here we are, the best time of the year again. I am looking to give out weekly picks and go over 60% against the spread for the fourth year out of five doing this. I’ve been over 60% ATS every year other than the weird Covid 2020 season. Here we go!
Last week I just tweeted picks, because week one and zero week are always a shit show for me. No data, no one knows. However, I did go 5-1 to start the season. Here is the tweet with a time stamp:
On to week two. What do we have here? A DISGUSTING week. Preposterous spreads. Huge numbers. A bettor’s nightmare, but not me. I’m built different, I love these gross weeks.
Here are my picks:
Texas +21 (vs Alabama)
BAMA CAN’T COVER EVERY WEEK RIGHT???? That’s pretty much it. 90% of the money in Vegas is on Bama. Always fade the public.
This game will tell us if Texas has a pulse finally, and/or if Bama is destined for another national championship. 21 points is a lot, even for Bama. Texas is at home. Star QB trying to prove himself. Head coach trying to set the culture. Best running back in the nation is wearing burnt orange. Just keep it respectable, Horns. 49-34 Bama.
Hawaii +53 (@ Michigan)
53??? That is a preposterous number. I don’t care how bad Hawaii is after former coach Todd Graham drove the program into the ocean. 53 points. Take the points. *data backs it up too, 50+ point faves are way under .500 ATS all time*.
Texas Tech -3 (vs Houston)
I think this is my all time favorite betting spot. An unranked team (Texas Tech) favored against a ranked team (Houston #25). If you’ve been following my blog you know it is an auto bet. You even get Tech at home for this one. Guns up, baby.
App State @ Texas A&M over 53.5
The theme of the week is the state of Texas, I guess. This pick is a reaction, not an overreaction, to last week. App State has an experienced QB and athletes all over the place. They will score a few points. A&M will have an improved offense with Haynes King under center and Jimbo coaching him up. The spread is -19 suggesting Vegas thinks A&M wins 37-17-ish. Personally, after watching last week and what App St can do on offense and what a good offense can do to their defense, I think both teams can outscore the 37-17 prediction. Easy over here.
Arizona State +11.5 (@ Oklahoma State)
I don’t know, this just feels right. This matchup screams hilarious chaotic close game. That’s just the vibe. ESPN FPI gives Oklahoma State a close to 80% chance of winning which should give a bigger spread than 11.5. That % is usually more than two touchdowns on the spread. See? It’s already weird. Take the points and hold your breath.
Vanderbilt +13.5 (vs Wake)
If I showed you blind resumes of recruiting classes, stats from one game this season, and told you that one team is in the SEC (misleading, I know), you’d agree 13.5 is too much. Neither team is that good. Which is scary. But I think the home team deserves a little respect. Ignore the team names and take the two touchdowns with a home SEC team against a basketball school.
Comparing this to the last pick of Arizona State, ESPN FPI only gives Wake a 62% chance of winning, and the spread is 2 points more than Oklahoma State is giving to Arizona State where they have a better chance to win. That proves both of my points, Vandy is getting too many points here, and ASU/Ok State is going to be pure madness.
Mississippi State @ Arizona over 57.5
Mike Leach playing in Pac-12 after dark with the latest start of the entire season on the mainland. That’s it.
EDITED AT END OF WEEK: Finished 2-4-1 on the week, and am now 7-5-1 on the season.