Welcome back, folks. I’ve been SUPER lazy as well as crazy busy the last month or so, so I have been tweeting my picks more than blogging. It has been an amazing month, too. We are now at 60% against the spread on the season! If we can finish above 60% by going 3-2 this week, that’ll be three consecutive (non-covid) seasons over 60% ATS. Show me a single person online doing that with receipts.
Here are the tweets with time stamps to prove it, since my last blog was week nine. Explanation and picks below that.
For those counting, I was 36-28 after week nine, and then went 2-2-1 in week ten, 3-3 in week eleven (typo in tweet), 6-0 in week 12, and 5-2 in week thirteen. So we have been good all season but we are HOT right now. 52-35-1 on the season.
Conference championship weekend is so fun. It also brought me three of my favorite picks of the season. Lets get to it!
Oregon +3 vs Utah (Friday night)
I hate the Ducks. They got their doors blown off in Salt Lake City by Utah like two weeks ago, in a game where Utah was around a touchdown favorite. I guess logically it makes sense to lower this to a field goal game on a neutral site with no home field advantage, but it is still fishy. Utah was clearly the better team, why aren’t they favored by more? You know why? Because I’m not allowed to be happy. I am confident the Ducks will win the game on the field and head to the Rose Bowl, but just take the +3 and collect your winnings.
The Ducks front seven cant get bullied like they did against Utah before, they will show some pride and the Ducks will likely not give up any special teams TDs like they did before.
Alabama +6.5 vs Georgia
This pick is on principal, I will bet on Saban as a dog against one of his former assistants until it loses or until I die. Bama winning the game will also be the most interesting playoff situation, so count on that happening.
Baylor +6 vs Oklahoma State
This is a classic betting situation. Oklahoma State is only favored by one-ish point more to Baylor than they were against Oklahoma? Baylor is sneaky good, we know that. Oklahoma State capped off their season last week with the Bedlam win. Do they have the juice to get back up for this game a week later?
I know there is a lot at stake so they should, but it is a natural let down. My thoughts are, Baylor is good enough to win or cover on a normal week, this is a let down spot, this is a high pressure spot, and they can easily keep it within a field goal. Why not? Oklahoma State has a good defense but it isn’t lighting the world on fire on offense so big wins are rare. I’ll take another dog, why not.
Utah State +6.5 vs San Diego State
You know what, read my above explanation of Baylor and Oklahoma State. This game is exactly the same, but SDSU has an even worse offense. Dog party this week.
Houston vs Cinci over 53
Both teams have good defenses, and it’s a night game at Historic Nippert Stadium so the crowd will be rocking with a playoff spot on the line. But, the number is too low. Cinci is a ten point favorite so with this total Vegas thinks the game will be something like 32-21.
I think a few things can happen to hit the over. I think Cinci can score 40 in an attempt to run it up for style points. I also think Houston can score 28+ on Cinci with a good showing. In no scenario does Cinci score less than 27 in my mind. What if it is a classic and goes to OT? That’s free points. A lot of ways to hit the over, and I will count on either Houston showing up big or Cinci running it up for the committee’s pleasure, or both!
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