Welcome back, sqaud. We had another good week last week going 5-1, and we are now 10-1 on the season. Hot start, baby! I was VERY wrong on my one loss, where I picked the over in the Clemson/Georgia game. You can go back and read that one and laugh.
However, still an unreal 10-1 to start and four of my picks this week popped out right away. No brainers. Lets get to the picks.
Again, don’t forget to follow me on twitter @ThomasLovejoy and @TheBenchPicks
My first two picks are a two-for-one all based on principle. Middling ACC schools playing AT SEC schools??? And they are favored on the road??? Say no more. Give me the two home dogs and keep your stats to yourself here. Pure gut picks. I especially like the Mississippi State pick with it being a night game in Starkvegas.
Tennessee +3.5 (vs Pitt)
Mississippi State +1.5 (vs NC State)
Iowa St -4.5 (vs Iowa)
I think Iowa is the sucker pick of the week. Iowa looked amazing last week (I picked them), and Iowa State started the season slow. Lets not forget that Iowa State is a top ten team this season after their top ten season last year, and Iowa is just good, not great. This game is at Iowa State, Gameday will be there, and the the team knows they need this win for a possible CFP trip. This game has huge implications, and I trust Iowa State to win fairly big on the backs of Brock Purdy, Breece Hall, and Matt Campbell.
Iowa is clearly overvalued after last week’s win over fellow overvalued Indiana. My projected spread for this game is -7.5, but because it is a rivalry maybe it could be -6.5, but either way it is value with the line at -4.5.
Ohio State -14 (vs Oregon)
Oregon may have been looking ahead to this game when they almost blew it last week against Fresno State, but I don’t think it is going to matter. No one watched Oregon play since it was on Pac12 Network, and everyone watched Ohio State initially struggle with Minnesota before pulling away. More importantly, people saw freshman QB CJ Stroud struggle. I think that reaction moved this line to -14 when it should be -17.
No shot Stroud struggles like that again, especially against an Oregon defense without Kayvon Thibodeaux. Ohio State should be rolling after seeing some game action last week, and I just don’t know how much Oregon can score against Ohio State’s front seven. Seems like Oregon cant matchup at any position and Ohio State will run away with the game late.
Those were my gut picks, some backed up by my formula that has been serving me well this year. Here are the four that popped out based on my formula, and they are all official picks.
Colorado +17 (vs Texas A&M)
Cal +11.5 (@ TCU)
Florida -28.5 (vs USF)
USC -17 (vs Stanford) ***I am scared that I am falling in love with USC and they have become what Bo Nix was for me last season.
Edited at end of week: I went 3-5 this week and am now 13-6 on the season.
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