Well, good start last week, eh? 5-0 on our Zero Week picks!!! I told you the formula would be back this year, and it’ll be fluid and in theory better as the season goes on with more and more data. But, this is gambling after all, so it is never easy.
Anyways, lets go to this week’s picks.
Virgina Tech +6 (vs North Carolina)
Yeah, I know I posted this after kickoff, but I was running late and tweeted it before kick. Here is the proof, and why you need to follow me on twitter.
My projected spread for this game is right on, but it being less than 7 is fishy to me. Vegas knows people love UNC and favorites in general, but they still made it less than a touchdown? I LOVE ugly lines like that. Basically, I will die on the hill of betting on a home underdog at night with a raucous crowd against an overhyped QB. Book it, VT covers.
Iowa -3 (vs Indiana)
First off, one of my favorite bets is this situation. The lower ranked team that is favored. Here, Iowa is #18 and Indiana is #17 but Iowa is favored. This probably has more to due with them being even but Iowa is at home, but I still love this situation.
Also, this goes along with my win total predictions. Indiana is good, but they are not 9 or 10 win good like last season and they are likely to come back to earth this year. Road games in Iowa are not easy, and Indiana is not good, simple as that. Vegas knows people are caught up on last season and the Heisman hype around Indiana QB Michael Penix, so I think the true line is -5.5 or – 6 Iowa. I’ll take that value, and a win on the field is a likely cover for Iowa. Seems like a good bet to me.
Oregon State @ Purdue under 69
Look, always take it with a grain of salt when the Beavs are in one of my picks, but this is honestly my unbiased favorite pick of the week, for a few reasons. First, 69???? That’s so many points???? The Beavs have a new QB learning the system still, and no more Jermar Jefferson to be a crutch to poor QB play. Also, the Beavs just aren’t that electric on offense in general.
Second, I know the Beavs defense, especially the defensive backs are much improved and will be able to handle Purdue trying to throw the ball all over the field. I just feel like it is the first game for both teams, things may take a while to speed up, and if there is a slow quarter at all for both teams there’s NO WAY it gets to 70 points. I think it is something like 28-24 Purdue.
Fresno State +21 (@ Oregon)
This is a terrifying, disgusting pick. Oregon is going to win, so I hate to gamble in that 20 point window of a win. However, my gut feelings matched up with my projected spread. Double whammy. My projected spread is less than -20 Oregon, and my gut says this is a look ahead game for the Ducks who play Ohio State next. Second, it’s an early morning local kick so the Autzen Stadium craziness is ruled out for the first half.
I don’t enjoy this bet, but I am going for it.
Georgia @ Clemson over 51
Yeah, there is a lore of defense around this game, but in reality both teams have top tier QBs and athletes all over the place. Do you think they’ll both be below 25 points? Do you think one wont score 30? I think this over is easy. The winner will need to be in the 30s in my opinion. There could even be a special teams or defensive TD to boost the over, which I always hope for with small numbers like this.
There is a lot of pressure on Kirby Smart to improve his offense at Georgia and follow the lead of Alabama and other dynamic SEC offenses, so this is his chance to show that off on the national stage. I’m not worried about Clemson scoring, and I think Georgia will have a healthy offense.
USC -14 (vs San Jose State)
No data here, just gut pick. Following my early season formula. San Jose State had a magical season, now they play at USC and there is quite a talent difference. If USC plays well, they cover. Period. If they don’t play well, they still can. My projected spread is right on this number, but Clay Helton is fighting to not get fired and they need to impress this season. All in all, I think they cover.
Edited at end of week: I was 5-1 this week and am now 10-1 on the season.