Last week was awesome. I loved the numbers before the week, and the results showed why. I finished last week 5-1 and I am now 31-19-4 on the season. Getting hot!
This week, I love the picks just as much. It’s a crappy week of “good games”, but some lines really stood out. More importantly, some spots really stood out. I hope you like chaos, because this week is all chaos. The Pac-12 is going to eat itself alive.
Georgia -5.5 (@ Florida – Neutral site game)
This is a short and sweet explanation. Georgia was supposed to be close to a lock to make the CFP preseason. They still have the same talent and the same coaching staff. Their one loss that made it seem like the sky is falling was on the road, where they had a few freak turnovers, and then the best kicker in the country missed a game winning field goal.
None of those things will happen week to week, let alone all in the same week. Georgia is fine. R-E-L-A-X. Because of that, we get a discounted line! Georgia should be favored by ten here based on ESPN FPI and my own projected spread, and they’ve had time to study film on the emerging Florida QB Kyle Trask.
Look for Georgia to get back on track to make a CFP appearance this week.
USC +5 (vs Oregon)
Oregon just played two nail biters where they snuck away with wins, and now they have to travel to Los Angeles to play the surprisingly good Trojans. This is a pure spot pick. Oregon is bound to slip up and ruin the conference’s hopes to make the CFP.
If you haven’t followed USC much lately, they now run an air raid offense with extremely talented receivers. It’s a very similar offense to Washington State, and we all know that the Ducks never cover against the Cougs because they can’t seem to stop that passing attack. I think USC learns from Mike Leach’s attacks on the Ducks in recent years and keep it close, if not win the game on the field since they have much more talent than Washington State, especially at receiver and on the defensive side of the ball.
I like the line normally, but especially in this tough spot in the Ducks’ season. They’re gonna be tired and emotionally drained.
Washington +3.5 (vs Utah)
Yes. More chaos. Yes, Utah will lose and also ruin the conference’s hopes to make the CFP. That’s just how it works. Sorry, I don’t make the rules.
ESPN FPI gives Washington a 53% chance of winning the game outright, and they’re getting three and a half points! Washington has just underperformed, but they absolutely have the ability and coaching to beat Utah. No question about that. Vegas just knows that people LOVE short road dogs. Don’t follow the public here, take the Dawgs.
Jacob Eason has a chance to swing the season around and have a big moment this weekend against Utah, and I trust Coach Peterson to get him ready, and to get the defense ready to stop Utah’s rushing attack.
Arizona – 5.5 (vs Oregon State)
Look, the Beavs may have pleasantly surprised people this season but they’re still the Beavs. Road conference games are never easy, and the Beavs ALWAYS struggle against mobile QBs. This is going to be a high scoring game and I think Arizona runs away with it late.
ESPN FPI is giving Arizona a 63% chance of winning, so the spread should be -10, and my projected spread is -9. That’s a lot of free value. Don’t let the Beavs road wins against Cal and UCLA fool you.
Go Beavs, though!!! Sorry, Beavs brethren.
Hawaii moneyline -120 (vs Fresno State)
The Rainbow Warriors on the island? That’s all I need to hear. I’ll bet ’em.
But for real, Hawaii is actually pretty good this season. If you’ve read my blogs this season and last, you know how much I love head coach Nick Rolovich and QB Cole McDonald. Those guys rule. The Run’n’gun offense rules. Their uniforms rule. But most importantly, Fresno State isn’t good anymore. They are a shell of last year’s team.
ESPN FPI is giving Hawaii a 58% chance of winning, so the spread should definitely be more than -1.5, and we are especially getting value by just hammering the moneyline instead. The spread should be -3.5.
Also, what’s better than sweating out a late night Hawaii game when they’re slangin’ the rock all over the field? Nothing.
Edited at end of week: I finished 1-4 and I am now 32-23-4 on the season.