Well guys, I told you last week was going to stink. Only one game met my standards, and that game lost. I am very happy to get out of last week going 3-4, not hurting my season win total too badly. I am now 26-18-4 on the season.
This week is the complete opposite of last week. I LOVE IT. LOVE LOVE LOVE.
*Some of these picks may be gross at first look, my favorite kind of pick. Hold your breath*
USC @ Colorado over 62 (FRIDAY NIGHT)
Both of these defenses are banged up and starting young guys, and both have very capable offenses. Colorado has struggled on offense of late, but those games are explainable. They had to go into Eugene against a really good Oregon D, and then travel to Pullman the following week where the Cougs needed a win big time. Now, Colorado is back home and there is no way they score fewer than 27-ish points against a bad USC defense. They’ve scored three and ten in their last two games and are still averaging 26.6 points per game. They’re fine.
USC on the other hand, has been scoring in bunches, and scoring on the road, too. This Colorado D is bad AND injured. This just feels like a classic wild Pac-12 Friday night game. I have no opinion on the spread, but I do know that it’ll be a track meet and the over is in play.
Michigan +1.5 (vs Notre Dame)
This is it. It’s disgusting. Everyone is on Notre Dame, but not me. Michigan’s season is on the line here. Harbaugh’s job at Michigan may be on the line here. Michigan needs this win, but most importantly, Michigan showed some fight last week late against Penn State. They actually looked sharp for once.
I think it’s going to be a wild environment at The Big House for this night game, and Harbaugh and the team will be in fight or flight mode, because everything is on the line here. Also, I hate Notre Dame and I think they’re wildly overrated. They haven’t played anyone with a defense except Georgia, and they lost that game. Michigan has that type of defense, or at least a defense that is significantly better than anyone else they’ve played besides Georgia, and Michigan is at home.
This will probably be a lower scoring game, so one late touchdown could swing everything. ALWAYS FADE THE PUBLIC. Notre Dame is getting more than 70% of the bets at some books.
Auburn @ LSU under 59
This one popped out to me big time. It’s as simple as this: while I love Bo Nix and I think he is magical with the ball, he hasn’t scored a ton of points against good defenses. Auburn scored 27, 28, and 13 against Oregon, A&M, and Florida. Most notably, Auburn only scored 13 at Florida, and this game is most comparable to that. This game is at Death Valley. LSU has insane speed on defense, and a great front seven. Typical for an LSU defense. I don’t think Auburn scores more than 20 here.
On the flip side, LSU has been smoking teams, even scoring 42 against Florida at home. I think that 42 number was a little inflated because of what happened in the game, but they still stuck it to Florida. I think Auburn is the first team to slow LSU down this season. Auburn’s front seven with their tackling machines at linebacker can hold them under 38 points, which isn’t even asking much. If they knock Joe Burrow down a few times or get a timely turnover, it could kill the chance of the over hitting pretty quick.
If both of my predictions are true, and Auburn gets all the way up to 20 points, the game still goes under at 38-20. There are a lot of ways this game stays under.
Penn State -6 (@ Michigan State)
Guys, I’m back on the Penn State boat. I can’t quit them. I’m addicted.
A ton of people are all over Michigan State here because they are blindly considering Michigan State teams of the past that always covered as dogs, and could always upset a few teams. This is not that team. This Michigan State offense is so bad it makes me want to puke.
I’m ignoring history, focusing on what I’ve seen this season, and hammering Penn State -6 here. My projected spread is Penn State -13. ESPN FPI gives Penn State a 70% chance of winning, suggesting the spread should be 13.5 or -14. This number was set hoping you would focus on irrelevant things about Michigan State’s history.
Penn State is still undefeated, and as I’ve said before, Coach Franklin loves running the score up to rack up some sexy points for the college football playoff committee. Two score spreads are safer with Coach Franklin making late game decisions.
This should not be a one score game. Penn State 35-10.
Texas Tech team total over 30.5 (@ Kansas)
They’re playing Kansas, and specifically a Kansas team that is emotionally drained from the huge Texas game last weekend. Texas Tech just needs to have an average game on offense to hit this team total over, as they’re averaging just over 30 points per game, and Kansas has given up much more than 30 points per game.
I’ll take my chances against a drained Kansas squad.
Texas Moneyline -120 (@ TCU)
I know TCU is always fired up to play Texas and TCU Coach Gary Patterson hates Texas and gets his teams ready and blah blah blah. This TCU team just doesn’t have it, and we are currently underrating Texas. Texas lost two games they should have lost against LSU and Oklahoma. They shouldn’t lose another game in the regular season. TCU lost to SMU, Iowa State, and Kansas State. TCU doesn’t have a normal Gary Patterson defense.
If Texas cleans some stuff up, runs the ball, and plays a solid game they should win this game with relative ease. Nothing is too easy on the road, but they should win by a touchdown.
My projected spread favors Texas quite a bit more than a pick, and ESPN FPI suggests the line should be closer to Texas -3. I’ll trust what I know is a good team playing to keep their season afloat against a 3-3 team who hasn’t beaten anyone not named Kansas since week two.
Edited at end of week: I finished 5-1 and I am now 31-19-4 on the season.