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Alright friends, this week is weird. Games didn’t pop out like they normally do, but sometimes those end up being the best weeks. We’ve got one auto-bet (Texas) that comes around every year, and four good ones where the numbers lead us to the right side in one way or another. We’ve also got picks for both Oregon schools. Go Beavs.
Last week I finished 2-2-1, bringing my season win total to 20-13-3.
Gonna keep this short and sweet, this week. Who knows what is going to happen, but the numbers and specifically the game spots point to these:
Colorado @ Oregon over 58.5 (FRIDAY NIGHT)
This is a good spot for the Ducks on a Friday night. The Ducks may be looking ahead to their rivalry game against Washington next week, but this isn’t a look ahead spot where they’ll let down and not cover or score. I think this is a spot against a poor defense, where the Ducks have been poor on offense of late, and they want to break it open to get some momentum before the Washington game. For that reason, I am confident that the Ducks will score in bunches and quickly at home.
On Colorado’s side, they have Steven Montez at QB who came into Autzen Stadium as a freshman and scored over 20 points. The kid won’t be intimidated. Colorado has averaged over 34 points per game this season, and the over should easily hit if they score even 75% of their season average. Colorado scored 34 against a decent Arizona State team on the road, they can score 27 against the Ducks, even if we get a garbage time score at the end. That’s the magic of gambling.
Ducks win 42-27, over hits.
Utah @ Oregon State over 59
This is a good spot for the over, in general. The Beavs are coming off of a HUGE road win over UCLA, and the offense has been humming all season. These dudes can score, and even against a stout Utah defense, they’ll score.
On the other side, the Beavs defense is still historically bad, even with the improvements they’ve shown this season. If Stanford could score 31 in Corvallis with their abysmal offense, Utah and their improved QB play and strong run game can score at least 35.
This pick is purely playing the game of averages. No chance either team is held to fewer than 27 points, so the over is a near lock. If you’re not a Beaver fan and you end up watching, keep an eye out for #17 Isaiah Hodgins. The dude cannot be stopped, and is the reason the offense has been cruising.
Utah wins 38-28, over hits.
Penn State -3 (@Iowa)
Guys, I can’t quit my Penn State addiction. People are ALL OVER Iowa here. Huge public side as a one score underdog at home. I’m not buying it, and I love to fade the public. Penn State has better talent than anyone in the conference other than Ohio State. If they play well, they win by two scores on the road.
ESPN FPI gives Penn State a 67% chance to win on the road, and again, if you are a loyal follower, this is one of my favorite kinds of plays. When FPI says a team is 67%, the spread should be -6.5 or -7. Vegas just knows the squares will be all over the Iowa hype, and down on a Penn State team that hasn’t looked perfect by any means.
I think Penn State covers my projected spread of -5.5, and easily covers the -3 we’re getting from Vegas.
LSU -12.5 (vs Florida)
This one is simple. Death Valley at night. Drunken folks in Baton Rouge, the opposite of what I correctly predicted last week with the day game in Baton Rouge. LSU has a top three offense in the country, defensive front sevens are much worse on the road, and for Florida, that is their strength this season.
Also, when ranked teams beat a higher ranked team (Florida over Auburn last week), and then have to get up and do it again the next week, they usually they fall flat trying to get their emotions up that much two weeks in a row, not to mention the second game being on the road. This is a classic gamblers spot.
Also, watch how cool the hype video is. LSU by a MILLION.
Texas +11.5 (vs Oklahoma)
This is all you’re gonna get, this has turned into an annual auto bet. Here it is:
Texas head coach Tom Herman is 13-3 in his career against the spread as an underdog. He is 5-0 against the spread as a double digit dog. Texas, even before Tom Herman, always covers as a dog in this rivalry game. They’ve covered something like six straight.
This feels like free money, why doesn’t Vegas just make it single digits? People would bet Texas no matter what.
Texas is underrated, a loss to LSU is not bad. We’ll see if Oklahoma is overrated or not. Hook Em Horns.
Edited at end of week: I finished 3-1-1 this week, bringing my season win total to 23-14-4
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