Week Four College Football Picks

HUGE week last week, friends. I can’t stop betting Penn State. If I could kick my Penn State addiction I could be 12-4-1 on the season, but instead I am now 12-6-1. Still a great start to the 2019 season.

This is a fun weekend of college football, but nothing jumped off the page like they did last week for me after crunching some numbers are hearing what the experts say. There are still some bets I really like, though. Not a ton of numbers and projections to give out like a normally do. This week is about good betting spots and fading the public.

This is the first time I’ve ever given seven picks, because I could not decide which ones to cut. Lets do this!

Ole Miss Moneyline -130 (vs Cal)

Cal couldn’t score more than 27 and 23 against UC Davis and North Texas. Good luck playing a 9am game in SEC country. Yes, I know Cal’s defense is elite, but this is just a bad spot and a bad matchup for them. Also, this will just add to the list of Pac-12 losses against the SEC. It’s miserable being a Pac-12 fan.

ESPN FPI gives Ole Miss a 62% chance of winning and the spread is only -2. That usually translates to about a six point spread. So instead of giving two points at -110, just take Ole Miss ML at -130 to avoid any nasty non-covers.

This game feels like it’s going to be ugly, but at least Ole Miss has scored over 30 and over 40 in their last two games, just to prove they can do it. In an ugly game, give me SEC big boys over Pac-12 guys any day.

Northwestern +10 (vs Michigan State)

The spread is about right based on ESPN FPI, but this becomes a logic pick. How do you not take TEN POINTS with a home team that is a monster as an underdog in the last few seasons playing a team that can’t even accidentally score touchdowns. Michigan State’s offense has been disgusting.

The total is only 37.5. It is so hard to cover ten points when only 37 points are scored.

Give me Northwestern at home in a classic 11am local kickoff, games where favorites go to die.

Michigan +4 (@ Wisconsin)

First off, Michigan just has more talent and in some games that can become very obvious. Yes, I’m trying to talk myself into this pick. Second, the public is ALL OVER Wisconsin, so I’m even more willing to follow my gut with this pick. That’s what this pick is. I feel it deep in my belly. There’s always one per week like this.

Michigan has underperformed and looked sloppy. Wisconsin looks like Alabama, which we all know is not true. Wisconsin is a fraud. Nothing makes sense. Take Michigan on the road. Go Blue I guess.

Auburn +5 (@ Texas A&M)

This is another pick fading the public. I haven’t heard anyone say they like Auburn. I LOVE Auburn here. Freshman QB Bo Nix got some valuable snaps and experience feeling what it takes to score 50 points last week in their blowout of Kent State. Have you guys heard about the Kent State Gun Girl shitting her pants? That’s another blog I guess.

ESPN FPI says Texas A&M has a 54% chance to win, which usually spits out a spread that basically just gives the 3 points for home field advantage. If you get still get 5 like I did, or 4.5, there’s some value there. My own projected spread is A&M -4, suggesting Vegas may know that people will hammer the home short favorite like usual.

Those numbers are just splitting hairs, but I still like Auburn. Bo Nix is going to continue to get better every game, and Auburn has an advantage on both the offensive and defensive lines. I love A&M as underdogs, but I’m not so sure about Jimbo and QB Kellen Mond as favorites, yet. Mond is improving too, but there’s just some magic in that right arm of Bo Nix. He doesn’t look pretty doing it, but he gets it done.

Texas -6

This one is a simple spot pick. Texas is better than you think. They lost to LSU, and LSU might be the third best team in the country. They could have won that game, too. Oklahoma State has only played high school teams, and their defense has still looked questionable. Oklahoma State is also coming off of an emotional win last week in my lock of the week win last week, the RIP T. Boone Pickens game, so this could be a let down game on the road.

That’s it. Texas is very obviously better than Oklahoma State. Texas is at home. This is a disrespectful line. Texas plays West Virginia next week so they aren’t looking ahead to anyone good.

This line is sort of fishy, as I expected it to be like -13 or so, and Oklahoma State is really good as underdogs, but like last week’s Oklahoma State pick I am not overthinking it. This line doesn’t make sense.

Washington -6

People love BYU and their very BYU-looking new QB Zach Wilson, if you know what I mean (pictured below). I don’t love this matchup for them. Washington crushed them last season, and they can do it again. Washington got a much needed blowout win of Hawaii last week, and now they’ve hit their stride. The line is too low, as an overreaction to BYU playing well against Utah at home, beating a miserable Tennessee program, and then a big win against a freshman QB and USC last week. That doesn’t tell me much about them, to be honest. BYU is still only scoring 23 points per game and allowing 27.

Washington is the best team they’ve seen, so it could shock them. ESPN FPI likes the Dawgs, too. It says they have a 65% chance of winning, and my projected spread is Washington -8.5. With that FPI number, and my own projected spread, and my eye test of what BYU actually is, I LOVE Washington here.

Washington is going to march into Provo for this early kickoff, dominate, and get back to Seattle. Sorry Zach Wilson fans.

Oregon team total over 34.5

Man, I hate to see it, but Stanford sucks. This will be three times I’ve picked against them in one way or another already this season. Stanford is giving up 32 points per game, and Oregon is scoring 44. Without context, that is useless, but it’s still an interesting bit of information.

Oregon is favored by 10.5, and the game total is 57, so Vegas is expected something like a 34-24 Oregon win. I think Oregon can EASILY score five TDs against Stanford to hit this team total over. Hell, UCF covered their team total over against Stanford in the first half last week. I’ll take my chances with Oregon scoring in bunches here, since Stanford has given up 45 in back to back games against UCF and Stanford.

I also hate the Ducks and Justin Herbert is WILDLY overrated, so bet this one at your own risk. I just think Stanford is that bad, and scoring five TDs in a Pac-12 game is very easy. No data analysis on this one.

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Edited at end of week: I went 2-4-1 and I am now 14-10-1 on the season.