Here we go! It’s finally that time again. We’ve got meaningful football games this week!
Don’t forget to share this on twitter and/or facebook. Trying to make more people some money this season.
Since this is a weird shortened game slate, I am only going to give three picks rather than my normal five or six.
I’m hoping to get off to a hot start like I did last season, but the first three weeks of every season are the hardest since there is no data from the current season. But, who cares! Let’s do this.
Miami +7.5 (vs Florida)
This pick is based purely on the fact that Florida has a QB in Feleipe Franks that is never going to run up the score, and Miami is starting a true freshman QB against a top-tier SEC defense. On top of that, most teams struggle on offense early in the season, specifically the first game, when the offense is incomplete and they have not practiced or put in some of the play concepts yet. Play calling will be simple, beyond the scripted first 15 plays.
With the game total at 47.5, Vegas thinks Florida is going to win something like 27-20. I would never wager money on Franks leading Florida to almost 30 points. Yes, I know at times he looked good last season, and they even scored 40+ in a few games. So what. Elite defenses still gave him trouble.
If Florida is kept below 24ish points, this is an easy cover for Miami. Miami will just have to limit turnovers, because the only games that Florida scored a ton last season it was due to their defense setting it all up, or scoring themselves.
When both defenses are good like this, a seven point spread is a lot different than a seven point spread in a game with a total of 64 or something. Much easier to cover. The dogs will be barking at Disney World this weekend.
Florida/Miami under 47.5
See above reasoning. Feleipe Franks vs a true freshman QB trying to manage Florida’s elite defense is going to be rough if you’re a fan of offense.
Hawaii +11.5 (vs Arizona)
Hawaii has 18 starters returning from last season. Experience is huge for them this season. Especially at QB, where Cole McDonald resides. Last season Hawaii started the season off hot, and McDonald became one of my favorite players to watch. He’s a classic Hawaii gunslinger with some mobility to top it off. Hawaii is going to score a ton vs Arizona, with the game total currently at 74.
On the other side, Arizona is now in year two of new head coach Kevin Sumlin, and he’s got his QB Khalil Tate back. Tate was unimpressive for the most part last season, and Arizona’s defense was terrible. I don’t think either thing changes, and Hawaii covers easily. Hawaii may even win, so look to sprinkle a little on that +310 moneyline.
This is a classic inflated line with a brand name school playing a group of five team, when in reality it is fairly evenly matched in my opinion. My projected spread is only Arizona -6 or so. ESPN FPI only gives Arizona a 61% chance of winning, which usually means the spread is between 6 – 7.5. Vegas knows who the squares will pick.
Edited at the end of the week:
I went 3-0 this week, now 3-0 on the season.