Welcome back, folks! I tweeted my picks last week instead of putting them here. I still have not gotten hot yet this season, mostly because I am addicted to Auburn and I won’t stop picking them. I can assure you, Auburn is #DONE now. We were 9-10 on the season before I tweeted my picks last week, and then Auburn did Auburn things and we went 2-3, so we are a miserable 11-13 on the season. I blame the fact that we haven’t been able to bet Pac-12 or Hawaii games, yet. My specialities.
This is the week we do it. One of my favorite picks of the year just happens to be in the biggest game of the year, so check out my last pick in this blog.
This is the week we get up over .500 and head towards a third straight 60% season!
West Virginia -22.5 (vs Kansas)
They’re playing Kansas. That’s it.
UCF -2.5 (@ Memphis)
This is another simple one. UCF is EXPLOSIVE. Memphis is not the same offense, or even team for that matter, that were were under former head coach Mike Norvell. I think Memphis is sort of overrated because of the past few seasons, but they are definitely not the same team this season. Memphis snuck out a win against Arkansas State, and then lost to SMU, who has similar speed to UCF.
My projected spread is UCF -6, and ESPN FPI gives UCF a 72% chance of winning which translates to roughly an 8-9 point spread. Memphis is only getting 2.5, so the eye test and the numbers say take UCF.
Miami team total over 30 (vs Pitt)
Early kickoff, Pitt wont be used to the gross humidity or be pumped up because it’ll be noon. D’Eriq King is still a Heisman level QB. Four TDs and a FG in a random regular season game is nothing for an elite college QB. Miami is also almost a two TD favorite, so they’re bound to score a little. Hell, that turnover hunting Miami defense may score on their own, too. Easy over here.
Texas A&M @ Mississippi State over 55
This pick is showing faith in Jimbo and Kellen Mond and the whole A&M offense after seeing a great performance where they scored 41 on Florida. The team may be in a groove, now. You can count on A&M to hold up their end of the bargain, but don’t bet this is you don’t trust Mike Leach and the Mississippi State offense.
Personally, I don’t think Mike Leach likes being embarrassed, and they were completely embarrassed the last two weeks after opening the season with an impressive offensive performance against LSU. The only reason I am putting faith in a struggling team is because the total of 55 is so low. The over could hit if they score 21 points since we know A&M will be moving the ball a little.
This is the biggest gamble of the week, but I trust Leach to score at home.
Georgia @ Alabama under 58
This is possibly my favorite pick of the season. Georgia has undeniably the best defense in the country, and the ONLY reason Tennessee scored 21 on them was a fumble recovery TD and two quick strikes in the second quarter. Other than that, Tennessee was held to 214 TOTAL yards. Georgia is good.
So, Georgia will be able to hold off Bama better than anyone, and then there is the added Kirby Smart vs Alabama motivation.
On the other side of the ball, Alabama’s defense has struggled, and even if Saban has to coach via zoom in practice this week, he is one of the only coaches I trust to implement major week to week change/improvement. Georgia also runs a fairly basic offense, so Bama will be able to line up their athletes straight up on defense and just play football. No crazy spread gimmicks or things like that, and that plays into their strengths.
However, I think Georgia is good enough to move the ball a little and keep Bama’s quick strike offense on the sidelines. All of this is good for the under: run the ball, move the sticks, keep Bama on the sidelines, Bama’s defense holds them to field goals instead of TDs because Saban kicked their asses this week, Saban won’t be on the sidelines so maybe they aren’t as sharp in all three aspects.
I have never been so sure about an under in my life. I think Bama wins 24-20.
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