This week is good. College football is heating up. The CFP committee has a few weeks of rankings. Minnesota and Baylor are still undefeated. Alabama lost, but they can throw a wrench in the CFP and still make it if some things go their way. It’s getting fun!
Last week was alright. I finished 3-3, and my season win total is now 35-26-4. Still good!
Lets improve on that this week. Good luck!
Georgia -2.5 (@ Auburn)
I’ve written about how much I love Bo Nix this season, and I still do, but I don’t see any way Auburn and Bo Nix score more than 20 points on Georgia’s defense. They have been dominant of late. Even with Auburn at home. In a few of their previous games Auburn only scored 20 on Ole Miss at home, 20 at LSU in a loss, and 13 at Florida. Georgia’s defense is the best of the bunch.
ESPN FPI actually favors Auburn here, and they’re getting points. This pick is just a gut pick. Georgia has looked really good since their loss, and they know they have to win out to make the CFP.
I think this could even be a blowout, maybe something like 31-17 Georgia.
Rutgers +53.5 (vs Ohio State)
This is just an absurd spread. Vegas knows that no one will bet on Rutgers no matter what the number is. The Bear Chris Fallica said that there has only been two 50+ point spreads in conference games and neither favorite covered. That will continue here. Ohio State will take their foot off of the gas late.
Ohio State first quarter -13.5 (@ Rutgers)
What? Doesn’t this contradict my other pick? Nope. You don’t think Ohio State comes out fast and runs up the score just so they can sleepwalk in the 4th quarter? Spoiler alert: they’re going to score a ton early. I even wonder if Rutgers scores at all in the first half.
Asking Ohio State to win the first quarter by two scores is an easy ask. Reminder: Ohio State is undefeated this season against the spread in the first half. I just chose the first quarter as it seemed like better value, because the first half spread was -31.5.
Alabama -18.5 (@ Mississippi State)
This is a spot pick, based on a pissed off Nick Saban who knows EXACTLY what he has to do to get his team back to the CFP after a loss. No analysis. I don’t care if Tua isn’t playing. Bama by a million so they can be sure they sneak into the top four if someone loses. I’ve never been so sure of a pick in my life.
Michigan -14 (vs Michigan State)
Michigan has quietly figured their shit out. Harbaugh isn’t necessarily on the hot seat anymore, the offense isn’t turning it over as much. On paper I like Michigan to win, but adding the fact that Michigan State has looked unbelievably terrible on offense this season, I love Michigan. It’s at the Big House, and Michigan still has something to play for. They’ll be looking to keep up the momentum going into the Ohio State game.
ESPN FPI is giving Michigan an 84% chance of winning, so the spread could justifiably be up near -21. People just love to bet Michigan State as a dog, but I don’t think that’s a good pick this season or in this game.
The last six games or so when Michigan wins, they’ve been winning big and covering, and that won’t change this week.
Edited at end of week: 5-0 this week, now 40-26-4 on the season.