I had ANOTHER good week last week. Still riding this unreal hot streak. 5-1 last week, and 21-7 since week two. I’ve got a good little system that’s been working for me, and here are this picks that popped up this week.
Make sure to follow me on twitter @TheBench__ (that’s two underscores).
Florida -7 (@ Vanderbilt)
Some would assume that this is a bad spot for Florida, thinking they’ll overlook Vandy, coming off of two huge wins vs. LSU and at Mississippi State, and then having to play Georgia next week. I disagree for a few reasons.
Florida has really good special teams and defense. They are prideful of carrying this team. That won’t let up week to week like the offense may. Playing behind this defense, Florida has outperformed expectations so far this season, and they’ll be motivated to keep it up. They know how much every game means. They can keep climbing up the rankings.
Next, Vandy STINKS. They showed some promise early in the season, but all hope is gone now. They’ve given up a ton of points three weeks in a row, and almost lost to Tennessee State. Florida could ( I don’t think they will) sleepwalk through this game and win by more than 7.
My last point, ESPN FPI has Florida at an 81% chance of winning. Usually, 81% results in a higher spread, closer to 10 points, so there may be some value in taking 7.
Florida wins big.
Boston College -13.5 (vs. Louisville)
I’ll keep this one short. It’s simple. Louisville has given up. They had some decent expectations for this season but they’re all gone now. They’re done.
As for Boston College, they’re coming off of a disappointing loss last week, and now they’re back at home ready to get back on the right track. Boston College has an elite offense, whether star RB AJ Dillon plays or not.
Boston College is more motivated than ever to get back in the win column, and Louisville doesn’t care about this season anymore. Louisville has spiraled out of control the last three weeks, and it won’t get any better unless their pedestrian offense does a complete 180. That’s unlikely on the road, in a hostile environment, in an early game.
Boston College by a million.
LSU +8 (vs. Georgia)
No numbers or big ideas here. The public is all over Georgia, especially after LSU’s disappointing loss last week. Always fade the public. We say it every week.
Second, this is a big game, and as I’ve said a million times, Coach O knows how to motivate his guys. This game will make or break LSU’s season. He will make sure his guys are ready to go. The crowd will be NUTS. Mike The Tiger will be roaring.
So far this season, LSU was an underdog against Miami and they won the game. They were underdogs against Auburn and they won the game. I like this spot for LSU.
LSU keeps it close at home, maybe even wins it and potentially spoils Georgia’s season.
Wisconsin +8.5 (@ Michigan)
Other than Notre Dame in week one, Michigan hasn’t played anyone nearly as good, or as physical as Wisconsin. Notre Dame beat Michigan week one, too. I think Michigan will take a while to get going this weekend because of Wisconsin’s physicality and defensive skill, and if Wisconsin takes advantage of a slow start, they could win this game outright. At the very least, Wisconsin can stay in the game by controlling the clock with Heisman candidate RB Jonathan Taylor.
If the spread is 8.5 and the over/under is 49, Vegas thinks Michigan will win something like 28-20. I think Wisconsin keeps it closer, and it comes down to a final possession. I also think that Wisconsin will hold Michigan to around 24, so covering 8.5 becomes a lot easier. Wisconsin hasn’t allowed more than 24 points all season, and Michigan isn’t exactly an excellent offense. Northwestern held them to 20, and Notre Dame held them to 17.
Michigan has scored easily against lesser opponents, which is exactly why I think they’ll have a slow start in this game against a good defense for the first time since week one, allowing Wisconsin to stay in the game longer, or possibly win it.
Hawaii +12 (@ BYU)
Hawaii QB Cole McDonald mysteriously didn’t play last week (Rainbow Warriors still covered without him and got me another W!), but he is expected back this week. Read what I wrote about him last week in Week Six Picks. He is a stud.
My reasoning from last week stands. Hawaii is so fun to watch, and they’re sneaky good. They could win ten games this year.
Other than their win at Wisconsin, BYU has not been impressive. They just got blown out by Utah State and Washington in back to back weeks. Maybe they aren’t as talented as people think. They just don’t have what it takes on offense, despite having a 30 year old QB.
Vegas thinks BYU wins this game 34-24. I’ll tell you one thing, Hawaii is scoring more than 24 if Cole McDonald plays. Guaranteed. How much will BYU score? Enough to cover 12 points?
It’s as simple as this, 12 points is a lot, Hawaii is gritty and better than people think, and BYU isn’t as good as people think. Hawaii WINS this game, and is ranked next week.
Edited at end of week: I finished 3-2 this week, now 24-9 on the season.
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