Well, here we are. We are finally back (sort of). This weekend’s slate of games looked a lot more fun a few weeks ago when I started poking around at betting lines. Now that most of the Big 12 postponed games this weekend, it isn’t as exciting, especially because my two favorite picks were involved with the Baylor game and Oklahoma State game.
Just to recap my last two seasons for any new readers, I finished the 2019 season at 51-33-5 (61%) and the 2018 season at 53-34-1 (61%). Find me another website giving you two season’s worth of picks over 60%. YOU CANT.
For you new readers, I will be giving out five or six picks per week based on my gut feelings, but mostly on my system that I follow to identify picks. I will usually tell you when it’s just a gut pick. Make sure to follow us on twitter @TheBench___ and @ThomasLovejoy
Lets jump into this weeks picks!
Clemson @ Wake Forest game over 60
This is my first gut pick of the season. It just feels like Trevor Lawrence and Clemson want to come out strong and score some points to kick off a CFP run and a Heisman campaign for Lawrence. A point total of 60 is so easy to hit in a college football game, especially if one team is surely going to score 45 and could easily hit 50.
Last season, Clemson won this game at home 52-3, so one would assume Wake would put up some more points at home in a similar overall matchup. With a spread of 34 and a total of 60, Vegas thinks Clemson will win ~47-13. Personally, I think Wake will score more than twice at home, even if it is a garbage time TD. All points count the same.
Charlotte +17 (@ App State)
Last season these two teams played and App State won 56-41. Context matters, now. Charlotte was beginning a season that started rough, but finished very well, getting a bowl bid after five consecutive wins to end the season. On the other hand, App State had big expectations and were in the midst of a magical season where they only lost one game.
This season, they are meeting somewhere in the middle. App State has to deal with a change at head coach, and common sense says that will be a struggle at first and that they cannot repeat such a magical season. As for Charlotte, they will seemingly be improved, and be ready to compete with App State. I feel like there will be a million points scored again, but Charlotte keeps it within one score or wins outright.
ESPN’s FPI gives App State an 89% chance of winning, so the spread seems right, but I don’t care. The little things matter here.
Charlotte @ App State game over 60
UTEP +44 (@Texas)
I don’t even need to do any research, this number is too high. If the game goes as expected, Texas will want to run the hell out of the ball to get the season going. Use this as a warm up. That’ll run the clock, and if UTEP can score two touchdowns somehow, even better. That would all but guarantee a cover.
It just feels like Texas is up 35-7 or 35-3 in the middle of the third quarter and they just sit on the ball and run it out. UTEP could easily score against the twos in the fourth quarter, too. Just too many ways UTEP can cover and not enough ways Texas covers in my mind. Last season Texas gave up 14 to LA Tech and 13 to Rice, so UTEP can score 14.
Western Kentucky @ Louisville game over 57
I almost went with Louisville to cover, because I love the direction they are heading. It feels like they are going to make a quick comeback from the nightmare that was the last two seasons, on and off the field. But then I heard everyone’s favorite college football guy Stanford Steve ranting and raving about Western Kentucky in the game, too.
All I heard was good things about both offenses, both head coaches, and the direction of both programs.
This is not a good indication of what will happen in this game, but the momentum matters a little bit. The last four games for WKU last season they averaged 32 points per game. Louisville’s last four they averaged 35 points per game. Take that as you will, but a sub par game from both teams could still hit the over.
Edited at end of week: I finished 1-4 on the week. Rough start to the season.