We made it! The final weekend of the regular season of the best sport on earth, college football.
I have had a good season so far, going 43-26-1 since week two, looking to close it out strong before I figure out how to write a few blogs for bowl picks.
I know I say this a lot, but I absolutely LOVE my picks this weekend. I feel good. Sweat these with me!
Note: I have no pick for the Ohio State/NW game. One of two things will happen, Ohio State wins by 40, or NW wins a close game. I’m not touching it.
Washington -5.5 (vs. Utah)
Washington is the common sense pick because they have looked awesome the last few weeks, they’re finally getting healthy and are stacked with freaks on both sides of the ball, and Utah’s QB is hurt.
With the way Washington has looked on defense, there was no way I could pick Utah here. I don’t care about their recent matchups or how good Kyle Whittingham is as a dog, Washington is the pick. They are going to overwhelm Utah.
Utah and Washington both finished the season really strong, but this is a case where Utah won’t have a home field advantage that sprung some huge upsets in the past, and Washington will show their elite talent.
Washington is the best three loss team in the country, and they are a few plays away from being in the CFP discussion this season, Utah has no business being a small underdog like this.
Oklahoma -8 (vs. Texas)
I know what you’re thinking, “But…but… Tom Herman is great as an underdog, especially against the Sooners!” I don’t care. Yes, he’s like 12-1 against the spread as a dog, and he’s beaten Oklahoma straight up a few times. Vegas knows this too. I bet the line should be like 10 or 11 and they made it 8 to lure in the sucker bets.
Side note, how much better would this game be if Texas only had two losses and didn’t shit the bed against Maryland?
Back to the pick, ESPN FPI gives Oklahoma a 72% chance of winning, which goes back to my previous point, the spread should be over 10 points here with an FPI number like that. There is some value in Oklahoma -8.
Oklahoma has heard it all about how bad their defense has been. They’ll finally play well this weekend in an effort to impress the CFP committee. It’s not a crazy task to shut down Sam Ehlinger and the Texas offense.
The Oklahoma offense will keep on running like normal, and the Sooners will win in the ballpark of 45-31.
Cal +3 (vs. Stanford)
This is a makeup game from a while back when the California wildfires were devastating the state, and the air quality.
I said it a few weeks ago and I’ll say it again, I’ve been waiting for this game since the middle of the 2017 season when my guy Stanford Steve predicted that THIS season would be the year that Cal finally wins The Big Game.
I’m going to blindly trust Stanford Steve here. No one knows Stanford like Stanford Steve.
Alabama -13 (vs. Georgia)
The ESPN FPI vs. the spread makes no sense here, FPI only gives Bama a 64% chance of winning but they are almost two touchdown favorites. Compare that to Oklahoma having a 72% chance of winning and being an 8 point favorite. Odd (So bet your mortgage on Oklahoma -8).
Both teams have been pretty good against the spread this season. Georgia has a good enough running game to control the clock a little to keep the ball away from Tua. Georgia has an experienced QB, and a dynamic backup who can come in for a spark. Georgia’s defense isn’t what is was last season but it’s still good. Lastly, Kirby Smart is looking to upset his mentor, Nick Saban. A 13 point spread in a rivalry game, that is essentially a home game in Atlanta for Georgia?
Does it sound like I’m justifying picking Georgia +13? Well, every bone in my body says pick Georgia because the FPI and other metrics don’t give me a clear pick on Bama.
But you know what? Bama’s defense is improving, which is terrifying, and they still have Tua. YOU DON’T MAKE MONEY BETTING AGAINST BAMA. Tua and his dude Jerry Jeudy are going to be giving Georgia flashbacks to last season’s national title game.
Edited at end of week: I went 2-2 this week, now 45-28-1 on the season.