I ended last week 3-2, and I am 7-4 in my last two weeks. Starting to get more data points and heating up! However, this week is weird. My picks aren’t based on a lot of numbers like the first three weeks. A few of these are purely just how I feel about the teams. I mention that more below. Some weeks, the math doesn’t provide adequate evidence!
Here are my bets for a big week four of the college football season:
Maryland MONEYLINE -120 (vs. Minnesota)
For those of you who are new to sports betting, betting the moneyline (ML) is just betting on that specific team to win the game outright. No spread involved. In this game, the spread is Maryland -1.5 at -110 odds (bet $110 to win $100). I found a lot more value betting Maryland ML at -120 (bet $120 to win $100). I paid a little extra for that extra point and a half of value.
Anyways, as for my reasoning, Maryland started off the season strong with a big win over Texas in a shootout. The following week they beat Bowling Green, as they should. Maryland slipped up big time last week, losing to Temple at home.
The Terps will be laser focused, and prepared for a conference battle against Minnesota. This conference game is huge for Maryland, because after this game, it’s hard to see many more victories outside of the Rutgers game.
This will be Minnesota’s biggest test of the season by far, and to make it even more difficult, it’s on the road. Let’s see how Minnesota’s true freshman QB handles his first road game against a tough opponent. I think Maryland wins a close game.
TCU -3.5 (@ Texas)
Texas made a huge statement last week, beating USC at home fairly easily. I picked them last week to cover, because I saw how poorly USC’s offense had been performing. However, TCU is on another planet offensively compared to USC and Texas. TCU has elite team speed, and one of the best head coaches in the country. Coach Patterson will have his guys ready, as always, and they’ll roll in to Austin and beat the Longhorns.
TCU just played a great game against Ohio State, keeping it close until the end. The Texas offense has been unimpressive, even in a big win over USC. Texas QB Sam Ehlinger is not playing to his potential, and seems to scrambling around too much. TCU will be ready to bottle them up, and show them what an elite offense looks like.
For the record, ESPN FPI says that Texas has a 61% chance of winning, but TCU is favored in Vegas. I don’t have numbers to back my argument, this one is about how I feel about these two teams.
Arizona -6.5 (@ Oregon State)
Look, I hate to bet against my own team, but this line should have been closer to -11. I won’t give much analysis on this one in an attempt to not upset my readers, but Oregon State’s defense is not good. At all. They showed some fight against Nevada in the second half, but one half of defense over three games hasn’t convinced me. Arizona has elite speed, that’s all I’ll say.
This bet is hedging my happiness, if Arizona covers, I win, if the Beavs win, GO BEAVS! I just hope the Beavs don’t lose by 1-5, where they cover the spread and lose the game. Not good for me.
Purdue +7 (vs. Boston College)
Purdue came into this season with some hype. They were expected to compete at a high level this season. Unfortunately, they have started off 0-3 losing all three games by a combined EIGHT points. So brutal.
This game is Purdue’s fourth straight home game, and they are in desperation mode. There’s a few theories for this game. Either they continue doing what they’ve been doing and they lose a heartbreaker by a few points, or they finally put it all together and get their first win of the season over a pretty good Boston College team. Both scenarios cover +7. The worst case scenario is them losing by more than a touchdown, but odds are, they won’t. BC’s defense isn’t anything special.
Purdue will have the most electric player on the field, true freshman Rondale Moore. He has been amazing this season. He does everything for Purdue, he catches balls, runs the ball, and returns kicks. If Purdue is going to win, they’ll need him to have another good game.
If Purdue can get behind their home crowd, desperate for a win, and get a few stops against this elite Boston College offense, they will keep this close and possibly even win the game outright.
I liked this number: BC has averaged 577 total yards, and Purdue has averaged 520 total yards. Very similar. Boston College has just scored touchdowns, and haven’t been forced to kick like Purdue has. I think those statistics will even out, and this will be a lower scoring game. By lower I mean less than 66, the total in Vegas.
Purdue covers +7.
Texas A&M vs. Alabama OVER 61
I don’t know, Tua Tagovailoa is really good. That’s about all I’ve got. Some TV personalities are saying Alabama getting Tua is like the Warriors adding Kevin Durant. They’re on another level now.
Alabama is going to score. A&M is playing at home, so they may steal a few TDs.
Really… just bet Alabama overs until further notice. Don’t be discouraged by the over not hitting last week. The over was the right side, Alabama scored 62 points and the over 71 didn’t hit. Incredible.
Finished this week 4-1, 11-5 on the season now.
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